Mediasi Nilai Tukar (IDR/USD) Dalam Pengaruh Harga Minyak Mentah dan Emas Dunia Terhadap Pasar Saham Syariah Di Indonesia
Abstract
Penelitian ini bertujuan tidak hanya untuk mengetahui pengaruh harga minyak mentah dan emas dunia pada pasar saham syariah di Indonesia, tetapi juga pengaruh mediasi nilai tukar (USD/IDR) dalam pengaruh tersebut. Karena hasil penelitian-penelitian sebelumnya, masih belum mungkin untuk menarik kesimpulan tegas apakah harga minyak mentah dunia dan harga emas memiliki pengaruh terhadap pasar saham syariah di Indonesia. Oleh karena itu, penelitian ini memasukkan nilai tukar (USD/IDR) sebagai variabel intervening untuk menjawab pertanyaan tersebut. Populasi dari penelitian ini adalah seluruh data Indeks Saham Syariah Indonesia (ISSI), World Texas Intermediate (WTI), harga emas berjangka periode Juni 2011 sampai Desember 2021. Sampel yang digunakan adalah 105 dan diperoleh dengan teknik purposive sampling. Metode analisis data menggunakan analisis jalur dengan bantuan program EViews versi 12. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa harga minyak mentah tidak memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap nilai tukar (USD/IDR) dan pasar saham syariah di Indonesia, sedangkan harga emas dunia memiliki pengaruh negatif terhadap nilai tukar (USD/IDR) namun tidak berpengaruh terhadap pasar saham syariah di Indonesia. Sedengkan nilai tukar (USD/IDR) berpengaruh negatif terhadap pasar saham syariah di Indonesia, serta hanya berperan memediasi harga emas dunia dalam mempengaruhi pasar saham syariah.
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